What the evidence says
In professional football, aerobic fitness is the
main determinant of match-related physical decline. After the 60th minute nearly all running, acceleration and deceleration zones plus total distance fall by
4–27% — with one striking exception:
sprint distance / peak speed does not drop. A player's field lactate-threshold and peak incremental speed correlate moderately-to-strongly (r 0.46–0.67) with how well total distance, HSR and accel/decel are maintained (Aerobic Fitness Is the Main Determinant of Match-Related Decline, Part 2,
J Strength Cond Res 2026, PMID 42351367, n=19, one club/season, observational).
The retention index
For each player we take the mean per-minute output in the
opening blocks (0–30 min) and the
closing blocks (60–90 min) of the same match, and express the late value as a percentage of the early value:
| Term | Meaning |
| HSR retention | closing HSR/min ÷ opening HSR/min |
| A+D retention | closing (accel+decel)/min ÷ opening |
| Fatigue-Resistance Index | average of the two, in % retained |
100% = output held; below 100% = it faded. Team median is
89%. Peak speed is shown as a separate flat reference — it is not part of the index because it does not decline.
How to use it
Primary (here, Game / post-match): the within-match 15-min data lives here, so the decline is computed here.
Secondary (Daily Report, MD+1): show only the resulting flag — a low fatigue-resistance player is a candidate for an aerobic / threshold top-up in the week. Reuse the player baseline from
xPO (own baseline > position norm); do not recompute it.
Two cautions
Substitutes look artificially resistant. A player who comes on after minute 60 is fresh, so their "retention" can exceed 100% (e.g. late subs here). Read the index together with minutes / substitution status — it shares that dependency with the substitute-deficit view.
Deceleration capacity is not ranked here. Raw max-deceleration comparisons between players are biased by momentum (body mass × approach speed), and body mass is not yet in the export — so this panel ranks a player against
themselves over the match, where mass cancels out, not player-vs-player deceleration ability (Deceleration Paradox, Lin et al.,
J Strength Cond Res 2026, n=80).
What is real vs demo here
Everything shown is
real real: computed from the StatSports Game export, Period15 blocks (33 matches, 31 players, 1,856 blocks of ≥10 min, peak speed passed through the >36 km/h plausibility filter). No demo values.
References. "Aerobic Fitness Is the Main Determinant of Match-Related Physical Performance Decline (Part 2)" — J Strength Cond Res 2026, DOI 10.1519/JSC.0000000000005546, PMID 42351367. · Lin, Dos'Santos, Xu, Li & Turner, "The Deceleration Paradox" — J Strength Cond Res 2026;40(5):560–565, DOI 10.1519/JSC.0000000000005378, PMID 42017978.